Strategy

How to Set Science-Based Targets and Actually Hit Them

January 16, 2026

Science-based targets setting framework

Science-based targets are the clearest line between credible climate commitments and marketing. A target validated by the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) tells investors, customers, and regulators that your reduction trajectory is aligned with what the science says is necessary — not just what's convenient for your current business model.

Getting there takes more than submitting a form. It takes emissions data that holds up to scrutiny and a reduction plan that's grounded in reality. Here's how companies that actually hit their SBTs approach both.

What SBTi validation actually requires

The SBTi has two main target types. Near-term targets cover a 5-10 year window and must be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees. Long-term net-zero targets extend to 2050 or earlier and require at least 90% absolute emission reductions before any residual offset.

For near-term targets, the minimum requirement for Scope 3 coverage depends on your Scope 3 significance: if Scope 3 exceeds 40% of total emissions (which it does for most companies), you must include it. The Scope 3 target must cover at least two-thirds of total Scope 3 emissions.

Sector-specific pathways exist for power, steel, cement, aluminium, transport, and financial institutions. If you're in one of these sectors, use the sector pathway. If you're not, the cross-sector pathway applies. The reduction rates are steeper than most internal financial models assume — typically 4-7% absolute reduction per year depending on the pathway.

The baseline problem

Your SBT is measured against a baseline year, typically the most recent year for which you have complete, verified data. This makes the baseline the most scrutinized number in your entire emissions program. If it's wrong, every subsequent year's progress figure is also wrong.

Two common baseline errors: underreporting in the baseline year (which means you start from too low a point and reductions look larger than they are) and inconsistent boundary definition (the baseline covers a narrower set of entities or sources than subsequent years, creating artificial reduction). Both are audit findings waiting to happen.

Invest the time to get the baseline right. If it means restating prior year figures, that's better than having a target built on numbers that don't hold up.

Translating the target into operational decisions

A company that commits to 42% absolute Scope 1 and 2 reduction by 2030 needs to translate that aggregate target into specific operational changes. What technologies, at which facilities, on what timeline, at what capital cost? If no internal team can answer those questions, the target exists only on paper.

Start with a reduction opportunity inventory. For each significant emission source in Scope 1 and 2, identify feasible reduction measures, estimate their emission impact, estimate their cost and timeline, and rank them by cost per tonne of CO2e reduced. This gives you a marginal abatement cost curve — a clear view of what your reduction pathway actually looks like.

Scope 3 targets require a different approach because you don't control the emissions directly. Supplier engagement programs, product design changes, customer behavior influence, and procurement policy all contribute but have uncertain and long timelines. Be realistic about what's achievable in 5-10 years versus 25 years.

Governance and accountability

SBTs that sit with one sustainability manager rarely get hit. The targets need to be embedded in the business — in capital allocation processes, in operational KPIs, in executive compensation. If the head of manufacturing has no financial stake in the Scope 1 trajectory, the Scope 1 target will drift.

Link your SBT reporting to your financial planning cycle. Emissions should appear in the same planning tools as revenue and cost — not as a separate sustainability exercise that runs in parallel but never influences actual decisions.

Annual tracking and course correction

SBTs don't validate themselves. Each year you need to show progress against your target trajectory, explain variance, and update your reduction plan if you're off track.

A straight-line reduction pathway from baseline to target year sounds simple but almost never reflects reality. Some years show larger reductions (major capital investment completes, renewable energy comes online). Others show less (production volume increases, a facility opened). The question isn't whether every year is a perfect step down — it's whether your trajectory over 5 years is tracking toward the endpoint.

If you're off track, say so and say why. Regulators and investors have more patience for "we're 18 months behind and here's the corrective plan" than for targets that are simply never discussed after announcement. Credibility in climate commitments is built on transparency about difficulty, not just on celebrating progress.

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